is there a trend indicator that isnt just a laggy moving average in disguise
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ive tried supertrend, half a dozen moving average crossovers, various 'trend' indicators off the marketplace. they all do the same thing: tell me the trend confidently right after the move already happened.
is there anything that identifies trend with less lag, or is lag just the unavoidable price of any trend tool and im chasing something that cant exist?
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youre chasing something that cant exist, and thats actually the useful realisation. any indicator built from past prices lags by definition. the less it lags, the more it whipsaws. supertrend, hull, kama, theyre all just trading lag for noise on a slider. there is no free reduction of both at once.
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this is the key insight people resist for years. the only thing that genuinely 'leads' is market structure, ie reading where price made higher highs and higher lows directly, before any smoothing. an indicator cant beat the raw structure its calculated from.
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so are you both saying just learn to read trend from the candles instead of using any indicator at all?
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mostly yes. use one moving average for a clean visual bias if you like, but make your actual trend call from structure: are we making higher highs and higher lows, or lower lows and lower highs. that read is available before any indicator confirms it, because the indicator is just averaging the same swings you can already see.
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every few weeks someone discovers that indicators lag and posts it like its a revelation. its in the definition of the math. the search for a non-lagging lagging indicator is a rite of passage and a waste of a year.
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harsh but i did waste close to a year on exactly this. the breakthrough was accepting that i enter on structure and use the moving average only to avoid fighting an obvious trend. the indicator stopped being a signal and became a filter. completely different and much healthier relationship with it.
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