trend following on weekly timeframe - the boring strategy thats winning

[bluedreams]

doing some honest self review. all the intraday strategies i grind on are barely beating breakeven in 2026. meanwhile my weekly timeframe positions (i hold 3-6 weeks usually) have quietly been my most profitable thing for 2 years running.

the strategy is dead simple: weekly close above 20 EMA = long bias, below = short. enter on first daily pullback to a clean level. stop below structure. let it run.

win rate is 'only' 45% but R is 3.2. annualized return on the strategy alone is hitting 18%.

anyone else finding that the simple slow strategies are quietly outperforming all the complex stuff?

[dreamchaser]

exactly my experience. the more complex i made things, the more i overtraded. went back to weekly EMA strategy in 2023 after my intraday system stopped working. been my most consistent income source since. boring works.

[shadowpilot]

+1000. retail traders need to hear this more. the obsession with day trading and high frequency is mostly broker marketing (more spreads = more revenue for them). longer timeframe = less noise = higher signal to noise = easier to be profitable. its not exciting but its profitable.

[Logan]

why does this work if its so simple? wouldnt algorithms have crushed this edge by now?

[nathanx]

because the 'edge' isnt the entry signal - thats simple by design. the edge is the patience to hold for weeks without overriding the system. algorithms can do that easily. humans usually cant. 95% of retail wont sit on a position 6 weeks doing nothing. thats your moat.

[danielw_]

this is just 'buy and hold' with extra steps. and youre charging admission for it.

[Hudson]

its not buy and hold because you have directional bias that flips, defined stops, and clear entries on pullbacks. closer to systematic trend following than passive investing. but the spirit of 'less is more' is similar.

[northlight]

boring is the secret i ruined years of capital chasing exciting strategies. when i finally tried 'boring' my equity curve smoothed out and my mental health improved. should have done it 5 years earlier

[carterw]

key thing OP didnt mention: drawdowns on weekly strategies can be LONG. 6+ months underwater is normal. most people abandon during that phase. if you cant tolerate 30% drawdown durations psychologically the strategy will eat you alive even if math works.

[Ian]

simple. slow. profitable.