triangles and flags, which continuation patterns do you actually trust
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continuation patterns, flags, pennants, triangles, are supposed to be higher-probability than reversals because youre trading with the trend. but i find triangles especially unreliable, they break both ways. of the continuation patterns, which do you actually trust and which do you ignore, and why the difference?
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i trust flags far more than triangles, and the reason is directional clarity. a flag is a brief, shallow pullback against a strong impulsive move, the bias is obvious, youre trading the resumption of clear momentum. a symmetrical triangle is, by definition, indecision, narrowing range with no directional lean, so betting on its break direction is closer to a guess. continuation patterns work best when the prior move was strong and the pause is shallow. the more the pattern itself implies indecision, the less i trust it.
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flag over triangle for exactly that reason, momentum clarity. a tight flag after a strong leg is one of the cleaner continuation reads because the context does the work, you need the impulsive move first and the pullback to be shallow and brief. symmetrical triangles attract people because theyre easy to draw, but theyre directionally agnostic, which is the opposite of what you want in a continuation trade. trade the pause in obvious momentum, not the ambiguous coil.
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triangles break both ways because you can draw a triangle on literally any consolidation if you pick your trendlines generously enough. half the triangles people trade are just range-bound chop with two lines imposed on them to feel like a setup. the pattern is often invented by the trader, not present in the market.
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the troll exposes the real triangle problem, theyre over-drawn onto noise because the criteria are loose. the discipline that helps, require a genuinely strong prior trend, a clear and not over-fitted boundary, and treat the break as a trigger to watch rather than an automatic entry, waiting for a close and ideally a retest. and honestly, if you have to squint and adjust your lines to see the triangle, it isnt there. flags are harder to fake onto noise, which is part of why theyre more trustworthy. demand the pattern be obvious, not constructed.
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to make the flag tradeable concretely, look for a strong impulsive leg, then a shallow, orderly pullback that doesnt retrace too much of that leg, ideally on declining momentum, then enter on resumption in the trend direction with a stop beyond the pullback. the key qualifiers are strong leg and shallow pullback, a deep messy pullback isnt a flag, its a possible reversal wearing a flags clothes. keep the criteria strict and the flag stays one of the more reliable continuation reads.
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