everywhere online i see either 'you can make 100% per month' from gurus or 'most traders lose money' from academics. there's no middle ground. what are genuinely realistic performance benchmarks for someone who takes trading seriously, practices properly, and approaches it as a skill to develop over time?

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/topic/458/what-are-realistic-return-expectations-for-year-1-and-year-2-tradersRSS for NodeSat, 06 Jun 2026 01:26:42 GMTTue, 17 Feb 2026 11:00:00 GMT60year 1 goal: survival and process. year 2: consistency. 15-30% annual is excellent. anything promising monthly 5%+ compounded is not realistic.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2555https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2555Wed, 18 Feb 2026 10:30:00 GMTafter 18 months of serious practice with a journal you should be able to see whether your decision quality is improving even if results are still inconsistent. the question to ask: are my bad trades getting better over time (smaller, faster to recognize, following rules more)? if yes, the aptitude is there and the returns will follow. if after 18 months the same mistakes keep appearing, the process needs to change.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2554https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2554Wed, 18 Feb 2026 09:00:00 GMTat what point should you be able to tell if you have the aptitude for this, or does everyone take the same amount of time?

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2553https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2553Tue, 17 Feb 2026 16:30:00 GMTmy actual numbers to make this concrete: year 1 down 12%, year 2 up 18%, year 3 up 31%, year 4 up 28%. not a single year of 100% returns. but compounded over 4 years that's a meaningful number. the realistic path is much slower than marketing suggests and much more achievable than the 'most traders fail' framing implies if you treat it as a craft.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2552https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2552Tue, 17 Feb 2026 15:00:00 GMThedge fund benchmarks are useful context. top tier macro funds making 15-25% annually on large capital are considered excellent. retail traders with small capital can potentially do better on percentage (smaller size, more nimble) but not by 5-10x. any system consistently returning over 30% annually on real capital is exceptional. claims of 5-10% per month compounded are almost universally not sustainable.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2551https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2551Tue, 17 Feb 2026 13:30:00 GMTrealistic benchmarks from people who make it work long-term: year 1 the goal should be survival and education, not returns. if you end year 1 with 90% of your starting capital and real understanding of what happened, that's better than ending with 110% and no idea why. year 2 consistent process established, returns maybe 10-30% on a small account if your system is working. these numbers sound boring because they are. boring compounding over years is what professional trading looks like.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2550https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2550Tue, 17 Feb 2026 12:00:00 GMT