<![CDATA[flags and pennants as continuation patterns - do they actually measure well]]>the textbook says flags and pennants have a measured move target equal to the flagpole. i've been testing this and the target gets hit less often than advertised. wondering if i'm applying the pattern wrong or if the measured move rule is just optimistic.

anyone who actually trades flags/pennants for real - how reliable is the measured move target in your experience?

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/topic/457/flags-and-pennants-as-continuation-patterns-do-they-actually-measure-wellRSS for NodeSat, 06 Jun 2026 00:39:11 GMTTue, 17 Feb 2026 11:00:00 GMT60<![CDATA[Reply to flags and pennants as continuation patterns - do they actually measure well on Wed, 18 Feb 2026 12:00:00 GMT]]>take partial at 50% of measured move. full target hits maybe 55% of time. volume behavior during consolidation is the quality filter.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2548https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2548Wed, 18 Feb 2026 12:00:00 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to flags and pennants as continuation patterns - do they actually measure well on Wed, 18 Feb 2026 10:30:00 GMT]]>tick volume in forex isn't perfect but it's correlated with actual order flow, especially in liquid majors. the troll's point has some validity but tick volume still captures the relative activity level during a session. a flag with declining tick volume followed by an expansion tick candle on breakout is a real signal. it's not as clean as equity volume data but it's not useless.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2547https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2547Wed, 18 Feb 2026 10:30:00 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to flags and pennants as continuation patterns - do they actually measure well on Wed, 18 Feb 2026 09:00:00 GMT]]>in forex volume data is tick-based not actual transaction volume so it's unreliable. the entire volume-during-flag analysis doesn't translate cleanly from equities where you have real volume data.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2546https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2546Wed, 18 Feb 2026 09:00:00 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to flags and pennants as continuation patterns - do they actually measure well on Tue, 17 Feb 2026 16:30:00 GMT]]>volume behavior during the consolidation is the clearest differentiator. in a genuine continuation flag, volume declines during the consolidation and spikes on the breakout. in a topping pattern that looks like a flag, volume is often elevated during the consolidation itself (distribution happening). the volume pattern before the breakout often tells you more than the price structure of the flag.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2545https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2545Tue, 17 Feb 2026 16:30:00 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to flags and pennants as continuation patterns - do they actually measure well on Tue, 17 Feb 2026 15:00:00 GMT]]>how do you tell the difference between a flag that's going to break out and one that's actually topping and going to reverse?

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2544https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2544Tue, 17 Feb 2026 15:00:00 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to flags and pennants as continuation patterns - do they actually measure well on Tue, 17 Feb 2026 13:30:00 GMT]]>the measured move concept is really about minimum expectation, not precise target. a flag formation in a strong trend that breaks out cleanly should at minimum continue the prior move. if you're using it as an exact target to the pip you'll be disappointed. if you're using it as a broad directional expectation and adjusting your partial exit accordingly it's a more reasonable tool.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2543https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2543Tue, 17 Feb 2026 13:30:00 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to flags and pennants as continuation patterns - do they actually measure well on Tue, 17 Feb 2026 12:00:00 GMT]]>the full measured move target hits about 50-60% of the time in my experience on daily charts, which is better than random but far from reliable enough to set-and-forget. what i use instead: take partial profit at 50% of the measured move, move stop to breakeven, let the rest run toward the full target. the 50% level hits much more reliably and covers your costs.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2542https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2542Tue, 17 Feb 2026 12:00:00 GMT