<![CDATA[mt5 strategy tester shows 80% win rate but live is barely breakeven]]>backtested my EA over 3 years in the mt5 tester, 80% win rate, smooth equity curve, looked beautiful. ran it live for two months and its barely breakeven, maybe slightly down after costs.

i know some slippage is expected but this gap is huge. what are the usual culprits that make the tester lie this badly? want to figure out if the edge is fake or if im just modelling it wrong.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/topic/398/mt5-strategy-tester-shows-80-win-rate-but-live-is-barely-breakevenRSS for NodeSat, 06 Jun 2026 01:26:53 GMTWed, 06 May 2026 13:55:00 GMT60<![CDATA[Reply to mt5 strategy tester shows 80% win rate but live is barely breakeven on Fri, 08 May 2026 11:25:00 GMT]]>this thread is a gut punch but i needed it 💯 just realised my 'holy grail' was repainting the whole time. back to the drawing board but at least i know now instead of after blowing an account.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2130https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2130Fri, 08 May 2026 11:25:00 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to mt5 strategy tester shows 80% win rate but live is barely breakeven on Fri, 08 May 2026 09:40:00 GMT]]>forward test on demo first, always.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2129https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2129Fri, 08 May 2026 09:40:00 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to mt5 strategy tester shows 80% win rate but live is barely breakeven on Thu, 07 May 2026 14:15:00 GMT]]>exactly. a real edge survives realistic costs, it just shrinks. a fake edge disappears entirely. the useful question isnt 'is the backtest worse than expected', its 'is there anything left after honest spread, commission and slippage'. if yes, you have something to optimize. if no, move on.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2128https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2128Thu, 07 May 2026 14:15:00 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to mt5 strategy tester shows 80% win rate but live is barely breakeven on Thu, 07 May 2026 12:30:00 GMT]]>so even a genuinely good system can look way better in the tester than it trades, just from costs alone?

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2127https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2127Thu, 07 May 2026 12:30:00 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to mt5 strategy tester shows 80% win rate but live is barely breakeven on Thu, 07 May 2026 10:48:00 GMT]]>ill add the boring culprit nobody likes: execution. in the tester your orders fill at the price you asked. live, a fast-moving entry fills a point or two worse and your exit slips too. on a high win rate scalper that few-point round-trip cost is often the entire edge. model realistic slippage and the magic usually disappears.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2126https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2126Thu, 07 May 2026 10:48:00 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to mt5 strategy tester shows 80% win rate but live is barely breakeven on Thu, 07 May 2026 08:22:00 GMT]]>harsh but a fair warning for the next person reading. a clean backtest proves nothing on its own. forward testing on demo for a few months is the only thing that separates a real edge from a curve-fit fantasy.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2125https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2125Thu, 07 May 2026 08:22:00 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to mt5 strategy tester shows 80% win rate but live is barely breakeven on Wed, 06 May 2026 20:05:00 GMT]]>you bought an EA with an 80% backtest and expected it to work live. that is the entire scam business model in one sentence. the backtest is the sales brochure, not the product. lesson costs a couple hundred and at least you learned cheap.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2124https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2124Wed, 06 May 2026 20:05:00 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to mt5 strategy tester shows 80% win rate but live is barely breakeven on Wed, 06 May 2026 18:40:00 GMT]]>quick test: make the EA only act on a new bar open, ie check that the current bar time changed before evaluating signals. if the seller refuses to confirm it trades on closed bars only, or you cant verify it, assume it repaints. a vendor who wont answer that question directly is telling you the answer.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2123https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2123Wed, 06 May 2026 18:40:00 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to mt5 strategy tester shows 80% win rate but live is barely breakeven on Wed, 06 May 2026 17:12:00 GMT]]>how do i tell if my EA is accidentally using the current unfinished candle? i didnt write it, i bought it.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2122https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2122Wed, 06 May 2026 17:12:00 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to mt5 strategy tester shows 80% win rate but live is barely breakeven on Wed, 06 May 2026 15:50:00 GMT]]>run the tester again on 'every tick based on real ticks' with your brokers actual variable spread, and add a few points of commission per trade. if the 80% collapses there too, you found your answer without risking another cent live. most fake edges die the moment you use real tick data.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2121https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2121Wed, 06 May 2026 15:50:00 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to mt5 strategy tester shows 80% win rate but live is barely breakeven on Wed, 06 May 2026 14:38:00 GMT]]>80% win rate that evaporates live is almost always one of three things: you backtested on open-price or control-points mode instead of real ticks, your spread setting in the tester was fixed and unrealistically tight, or your EA peeks at the current bar before it closes. that last one, repainting on the forming candle, produces gorgeous backtests that are pure fiction.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2120https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/2120Wed, 06 May 2026 14:38:00 GMT