head and shoulders is the poster child of reversal patterns but in my experience the neckline breaks and then half the time it just reverses straight back up. for those who trade it, whats your real-world hit rate like, and do you have conditions that separate the ones that work from the ones that fail?

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/topic/349/head-and-shoulders-how-often-does-it-actually-play-out-for-you-in-practiceRSS for NodeSat, 06 Jun 2026 00:39:26 GMTTue, 24 Feb 2026 13:25:00 GMT60coin flip alone, real edge with mature trend, good location, retest entry.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/1758https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/1758Wed, 25 Feb 2026 16:30:00 GMTthe inverse for bottoms follows the same principles, weak in isolation, stronger with context and a retest, same crowded-neckline issue. the main practical difference is that bottoms often form more slowly and emotionally as fear exhausts, while tops can be sharper, but the trading rules are symmetric, demand a mature prior move, a sensible location, and prefer the retest entry over the raw break. dont assume bottoms are inherently more reliable, treat them with the same context-and-retest discipline.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/1757https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/1757Wed, 25 Feb 2026 14:05:00 GMTis the inverse version, for bottoms, just as unreliable or does it work better, ive heard bottoms behave differently?

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/1756https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/1756Wed, 25 Feb 2026 11:20:00 GMTthe troll points at the real reason naive neckline-break entries fail so often, theyre crowded and obvious. the adaptation that helped me, dont enter on the raw neckline break, wait for the break and a retest of the neckline from below that holds, which flushes the stop-grab fakeout first. same as breakouts generally, the obvious entry is the trap and the retest entry sidesteps it. context for whether to trade it, retest for how to enter it.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/1755https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/1755Wed, 25 Feb 2026 09:35:00 GMTthe neckline break that reverses straight back is the market filling stops below an obvious neckline everyone drew identically. youre trading the most telegraphed level on the chart, of course it gets faded. the pattern is so famous its become a liquidity map for the people on the other side.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/1754https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/1754Tue, 24 Feb 2026 17:20:00 GMTlocation is everything with this one. a head and shoulders after a long mature trend into significant resistance is a different animal from one in the middle of nowhere, yet people trade them as if identical. the failed neckline breaks you describe cluster heavily in the no-context versions. demand the pattern appear where a reversal makes structural sense and the failures drop a lot.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/1753https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/1753Tue, 24 Feb 2026 15:45:00 GMTmy real hit rate on it alone is unremarkable, roughly a coin flip, which matches your experience. what lifts it is context, a head and shoulders at the end of an extended trend, into a higher-timeframe resistance, with a clean volume or momentum divergence, plays out far more than one appearing mid-range or against the dominant trend. the pattern in isolation is weak. the pattern at the right location after a mature move is where the edge actually sits.

]]>https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/1752https://forum.forexroasted.com/post/1752Tue, 24 Feb 2026 14:10:00 GMT